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How many blue phats are left?

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punkrock9111
Nov Member 2019

punkrock9111

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How many blue partyhats do you think are still in circulation?

As the most expensive item in the game, this means their supply cannot match their demand, which justifies its steep price.

But how many are actually out there being traded day to day?

I think a generous estimate, though the real numbers are likely much less, but just for argument, we will say there might be 500 partyhat sets left in circulation. If this is the case, because blue partyhats have a 15 / 128 probability of receiving it from the cracker, leaves 11.71% of these being blue partyhats, which corresponds to 58 blue partyhats.

Often the blue partyhat, for collectors, is the 'end game' partyhat, so to speak. People will use the other partyhats to flip them for profit to work their way up to blue. This leaves them keepsaked and held, when bought, rather than going back into circulation.

So these theoretical 58 partyhats might even be closer to 3 - 7 that are actively traded, and this is my estimate. I base this off of purchases I see posted on the forums and the infreqency of blue partyhats actually being traded.

I also base this off of my own experiences in the partyhat market: often the most popular partyhat merchants themselves will not have a blue to sell.

So what are your thoughts? How many blue partyhats are left, and being actively traded, in the game?

30-Dec-2019 21:58:25

Conner 4Real
Jun Member 2019

Conner 4Real

Posts: 223Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
At least a few hundred are left on active accounts, you can't go to GE on a busy world without seeing multiple. Additionally many of the x'ers at duel arena have at least 1.

There are not as many actively traded due to several reasons (keepsake, passive income from lending, perma "NFS" by owner) but there are still a ton of these left in the game compared to say a Gem Sack token.
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31-Dec-2019 02:49:35

punkrock9111
Nov Member 2019

punkrock9111

Posts: 565Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Conner 4Real said:
At least a few hundred are left on active accounts, you can't go to GE on a busy world without seeing multiple. Additionally many of the x'ers at duel arena have at least 1.

There are not as many actively traded due to several reasons (keepsake, passive income from lending, perma "NFS" by owner) but there are still a ton of these left in the game compared to say a Gem Sack token.


I have to disagree. With my own experience flipping partyhats, every other partyhat is fairly easy to locate except for blue. There are maybe two sellers on any given day max. In world two, you can see maybe two or three people wearing them at our spot, but that's about it, and that certainly doesnt mean they are selling them.

Even a search for blue partyhat sales in forums only renders four or five in the last few weeks, and they average no more than one sale a week, often of the same few being flipped back and forth between merchants.

Certainly, the gem sack token is more rare, but to say there are 'a ton' of blue partyhats actively traded, even hundreds, is a gross misrepresentation.

31-Dec-2019 04:55:04 - Last edited on 31-Dec-2019 04:57:00 by punkrock9111

Kiljutonkka
Oct Member 2019

Kiljutonkka

Posts: 160Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
punkrock9111 said:
Conner 4Real said:
At least a few hundred are left on active accounts, you can't go to GE on a busy world without seeing multiple. Additionally many of the x'ers at duel arena have at least 1.

There are not as many actively traded due to several reasons (keepsake, passive income from lending, perma "NFS" by owner) but there are still a ton of these left in the game compared to say a Gem Sack token.


I have to disagree. With my own experience flipping partyhats, every other partyhat is fairly easy to locate except for blue. There are maybe two sellers on any given day max. In world two, you can see maybe two or three people wearing them at our spot, but that's about it, and that certainly doesnt mean they are selling them.

Even a search for blue partyhat sales in forums only renders four or five in the last few weeks, and they average no more than one sale a week, often of the same few being flipped back and forth between merchants.

Certainly, the gem sack token is more rare, but to say there are 'a ton' of blue partyhats actively traded, even hundreds, is a gross misrepresentation.


You know nothing, Punkrock9111

31-Dec-2019 05:07:10

punkrock9111
Nov Member 2019

punkrock9111

Posts: 565Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Re Kiljutonkka: "You know nothing, Punkrock9111"

I have been a part of the rares market for many years and have played RS off and on since Classic. In my post, I have not only drawn on personal experiences in this market, but also statistics and estimates based on probabilities and presumptions drawn from these experiences, facts, and observations.

Personal attacks don't add to our discussion. If you have an opinion on the topic, please post a claim, and then back it up with examples and evidence. :)

31-Dec-2019 05:13:23 - Last edited on 31-Dec-2019 05:39:19 by punkrock9111

Conner 4Real
Jun Member 2019

Conner 4Real

Posts: 223Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
To be clear I said "Ton" compared to Gem Sack Token which is rumored to have sub 10 left in the game.

There are far more than your estimated 58 Blue Partyhats on active accounts. As I stated previously that does not mean they are being actively traded.

Additionally a flaw in using statistics to try to make this estimate is that the hats have a known rate from cracker but each was duplicated at different rates during duplicate bugs. This leads to the actual distrubtion of hat colors to be different than the rates that they are obtained from crackers.
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31-Dec-2019 06:01:19 - Last edited on 31-Dec-2019 06:04:05 by Conner 4Real

punkrock9111
Nov Member 2019

punkrock9111

Posts: 565Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Conner 4Real said:
To be clear I said "Ton" compared to Gem Sack Token which is rumored to have sub 10 left in the game.

There are far more than your estimated 58 Blue Partyhats on active accounts. As I stated previously that does not mean they are being actively traded.

Additionally a flaw in using statistics to try to make this estimate is that the hats have a known rate from cracker but each was duplicated at different rates during duplicate bugs. This leads to the actual distrubtion of hat colors to be different than the rates that they are obtained from crackers.


Fair point, though the glitch only lasted for a short time, not many were aware of it, and it was pink (purple) that was duplicated the most as it was the most expensive. This point is evidenced by its shift in price from the highest to the lowest afterwards. The 2003 duplication glitch is, of course, the unknown factor here.

I think it is probable that blue was less impacted/targeted during the glitch, as it is the second most rare from getting it from the cracker, just under purple, and remains the most expensive. The only significant shift in the partyhat order from classic was purple. Then green a few years after (which used to be right under blue) mostly for cosmetic reasons.

Something even more telling about blue's rarity compared to the other partyhats is that it is among the least desired color of partyhat in the player made poll 'what is your favorite color phat?" (less demand) yet has held strong as the most expensive (significantly less supply) - as much as two to three times expensive as the lower tiered partyhats.


The most important factor here, of course, and the topic of discussion, isn't the number of blues introduced to the game, or duplicated, but the number of actively traded blue partyhats. It is not as rare as gem sacks, half wines, Christmas crackers, yes, but the numbers of actively traded blues is becomming very low.

31-Dec-2019 06:14:08 - Last edited on 31-Dec-2019 06:30:24 by punkrock9111

punkrock9111
Nov Member 2019

punkrock9111

Posts: 565Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Especially when you consider the nature of the item: many keepsake the item, with no intention of ever returning it to circulation.

I think the blue partyhat could very well follow in the footsteps of other rares that are coming very close to ceasing to be traded at all, similar to the state of the Christmas cracker currently: six years ago, when I last played, they were traded weekly, and were always being updated in the forums. Now they are traded so infrequently, that they aren't even included in the upper rares list of the Discontinued Items Status.

31-Dec-2019 06:33:59 - Last edited on 31-Dec-2019 06:49:57 by punkrock9111

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