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How many blue phats are left?

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punkrock9111
Nov Member 2019

punkrock9111

Posts: 569Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Trips said:
You realize if there was this few of hats left, prices would be much higher due to hoarders...


The most recent sale price for the blue partyhat was 22.2B, according to Discontinued Items Status v58. That is a fairly steep price, especially compared with all of the other rares. To put it to a ratio, as an example, this means one blue partyhat is worth 52 Green H'ween masks. This, in my opinion, lends support to my presumptions on it's incredible rarity. H'ween masks were also released around the same time as the partyhats, mind you. It has also historically been worth up to 3x the lower partyhats.

15-Jan-2020 00:47:53

Radyi
Jun Member 2010

Radyi

Posts: 1,950Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
punkrock9111 said:
Trips said:
You realize if there was this few of hats left, prices would be much higher due to hoarders...


The most recent sale price for the blue partyhat was 22.2B, according to Discontinued Items Status v58. That is a fairly steep price, especially compared with all of the other rares. To put it to a ratio, as an example, this means one blue partyhat is worth 52 Green H'ween masks. This, in my opinion, lends support to my presumptions on it's incredible rarity. H'ween masks were also released around the same time as the partyhats, mind you. It has also historically been worth up to 3x the lower partyhats.


Demand/rarity has to do with it, hween masks blind you when you look at one, phats look pretty decent with most outfits. I think no1 can actually estimate the mount of phats left since the dupe glitch etc... but it is safe to say we can say the amount of actively traded phats is dropping. Eventually all of them will disappear and people will focus on the lowers OR jagex will make them ge tradeable and the market will probably get shaken up quite a bit
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15-Jan-2020 08:55:09

punkrock9111
Nov Member 2019

punkrock9111

Posts: 569Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Radyi said:
punkrock9111 said:
Trips said:
You realize if there was this few of hats left, prices would be much higher due to hoarders...


The most recent sale price for the blue partyhat was 22.2B, according to Discontinued Items Status v58. That is a fairly steep price, especially compared with all of the other rares. To put it to a ratio, as an example, this means one blue partyhat is worth 52 Green H'ween masks. This, in my opinion, lends support to my presumptions on it's incredible rarity. H'ween masks were also released around the same time as the partyhats, mind you. It has also historically been worth up to 3x the lower partyhats.


Demand/rarity has to do with it, hween masks blind you when you look at one, phats look pretty decent with most outfits. I think no1 can actually estimate the mount of phats left since the dupe glitch etc... but it is safe to say we can say the amount of actively traded phats is dropping. Eventually all of them will disappear and people will focus on the lowers OR jagex will make them ge tradeable and the market will probably get shaken up quite a bit


I agree that the partyhats will follow along the lines of the Christms cracker and half wine, in becomming virtually extinct. Blue, being the most rare of the partyhats, should be first to stop being traded entirely.

What I think will happen first, is that its value will likely reach 'priceless' status, due to its rarity and desirability, and no one will be able to afford the price that the few owners of the item value it at.

Then to follow in years to come, is that they will be so rare that only one or two will even be visable in game as veteran players occasionally return out of curiosity. Then, of course, eventually, none at all will be traded or seen.

Six years ago, I used to flip half wines and Christms crackers. Now you can't even find a seller of these items.

15-Jan-2020 21:23:57 - Last edited on 15-Jan-2020 22:54:06 by punkrock9111

Mlune
Sep Member 2016

Mlune

Posts: 672Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Itís not the most rare. Itís the least actively traded. -
Master of All
- August 4, 2019
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Billionaire
- November 5, 2019
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All Dyed T92s
- January 9, 2020 -
6/6 Partyhats Keepsaked
- February 19, 2020

15-Jan-2020 22:01:29

Mlune
Sep Member 2016

Mlune

Posts: 672Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Thatís a fair opinion. Hence the purpose of this thread :) I appreciate the discussion. Iím just basing it off of my personal trade experience, not any kind of facts hah. -
Master of All
- August 4, 2019
-
Billionaire
- November 5, 2019
-
All Dyed T92s
- January 9, 2020 -
6/6 Partyhats Keepsaked
- February 19, 2020

15-Jan-2020 23:16:16 - Last edited on 15-Jan-2020 23:16:56 by Mlune

Blasphemite
Aug Member 2008

Blasphemite

Posts: 12,322Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
punkrock9111 said:
I believe the blue partyhat is both the most rare and the least actively traded of the partyhats.



"If there are 500 partyhat sets left in circulation, with of course the blue being the limiting factor, then there are 500 blues in circulation. Did you mean 500 partyhats left in circulation? I think that's what you meant if you're saying 11.71% of these 500 partyhats are blue."


Despite responding to the post in which I asked this, you didn't respond to this question directly. Also you haven't gotten around to addressing my anecdote. Was I off topic or do you just not want to engage me?
For stardust thou art, and unto stardust shalt thou return.

18-Jan-2020 18:22:10

Deja†Entendu
Aug Member 2017

Deja†Entendu

Posts: 226Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Blasphemite said:
punkrock9111 said:
I believe the blue partyhat is both the most rare and the least actively traded of the partyhats.



"If there are 500 partyhat sets left in circulation, with of course the blue being the limiting factor, then there are 500 blues in circulation. Did you mean 500 partyhats left in circulation? I think that's what you meant if you're saying 11.71% of these 500 partyhats are blue."


Despite responding to the post in which I asked this, you didn't respond to this question directly. Also you haven't gotten around to addressing my anecdote. Was I off topic or do you just not want to engage me?


I addressed that about his 500 sets somehow becoming 58 blues as well back on page two, and he never responded to me either. Seems to be a theme of him picking and choosing what to respond to. I'm all for open discussion, but it seems based on what I've read that op is more about advancing his own opinions and agenda than candid discussion.

18-Jan-2020 21:41:53

Etoiles
Nov Member 2011

Etoiles

Posts: 268Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
All right guys and gals, here's some actual information instead of 6 pages of nonsense:


Data stream 3 years ago mentioned 77 average partyhat trades a day.
https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/50dx07/tldw_226_qa_data_stream/


Data stream 2 years ago had 9 partyhat trades on the G.E. One of them being a blue one.
https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/a7o6uu/tldw_416_shaunys_data_stream_completed/


Please don't apply your 11.71% and turn my info into more nonsense because I will facepalm so hard.




.
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."

Edmund Burke

21-Jan-2020 06:53:12

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