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Leonard's Lucky Dip Discussion

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CountPetofi
Mar Member 2009

CountPetofi

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Roddy Piper said:
I haven't done the math, but I feel like I had a much better chance to win whatever prize I wanted in the rigged version.

1/100 chance per ticket, limit of 15 per entry?

I need a lot more tickets. You can keep the Scrappy Doo medium lamps.

Made In Asia said:
I've spended lots of tickets on past few days in a single one reward category and didnt got nothing. This rate is shit!

Jeremy Cheng said:
to solve the low drop rate issue, add a weekly Threshold to each category you don't win where your chance at winning a prize goes up by X %, to be decided by jagex. The threshold will reset on weekly reset. The threshold will increase your % to win by X every day you don't win, resetting on weekly reset.


It's like the game of "Craps." Each roll of the dice is independent of all previous rolls. Meaning, your odds are the same upon each roll, period. For instance, your odds of rolling a 7 are six-out-of-thirty-six possibilities, or 1 in 6, regardless of previous outcomes.

It's the same with Leonard's Lucky Dip. The odds of getting Deathtouched Darts are 1/100 per ticket. Therefore, you can enter as many times as you like, but each ticket gets "rolled" at a 1 in 100 chance. So, to make us feel better about such poor odds per ticket, people will say, "Enter 10 tickets and your odds to win go up to 10%." But that's disingenuous IMHO. Our odds remain at 1 in 100 per ticket, no more, no less.

BTW, in 11 days, I haven't won anything after having chanced well over 35 tickets. I believe I had many left over from Balthazar's Big Raffle. And, with Balthazar, I won dozens of Deathtouched Darts. The proof is in the bank—or not in the bank—during Leonard's Lucky Dip :@

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12-Sep-2021 00:41:16 - Last edited on 12-Sep-2021 01:14:40 by CountPetofi

Rook Prime
Apr Member 2008

Rook Prime

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The odds don't seem right even taking that into account. I've been entering 2 tickets for deposit boxes a day except one (I collect them.) Total of 19 so far as of before the last reset. I've won twice. Even if the loss is an 80% chance, the odds of that happening repeatedly start to get worse than 50/50 after about 4 attempts, and basic law of averages you should be winning every 5 or so.

I actually liked the old system over this. "Rigged" or not, I still usually had better odds of winning since you could only win one prize per day. So yeah, someone entered 50 tickets in one gold barrows drawing? If they win, their other 49 tickets are wiped out. And at least if I wanted to win something, I could put 1 ticket in for deposit boxes :3. Everyone hated them so much that was usually an 80-100% win chance.

12-Sep-2021 01:11:27

CountPetofi
Mar Member 2009

CountPetofi

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I agree
Rook Prime
.

I'm not so sure the word "rigged" really is appropriate since Jagex was fairly running the game, not "rigging" it. I know you didn't come up with that particular term for Balthazar's Big Raffle, I'm just musing, that's all ;)

Anyway, anyone who's played games of chance will know, whether it's something like Craps or Roulette, you can have huge dry spells. Even with 1 in 6 odds for rolling a 7 in Craps, you can roll a pair of dice several dozen times before you roll that 7—even longer before a number comes up in Roulette.

Of course, you can also roll seven 7s in a row. However, with odds at only 1 in 6 for a 7 to appear (as opposed to 1 in 100), that's a much easier feat to accomplish—although extraordinarily rare. So, 1 in 100? Looking at it from a reverse perspective: how often do you expect your POP voyages to fail when you send them out with a rating of a 99% chance to succeed? I'm sure you'd be quite confident that your voyage will return "successful." ;)
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12-Sep-2021 01:30:05 - Last edited on 12-Sep-2021 02:17:58 by CountPetofi

CountPetofi
Mar Member 2009

CountPetofi

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Day 20
, and still no win, no darts. That's horrendous.
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20-Sep-2021 20:24:12

Dilbert2001
Jun Member 2006

Dilbert2001

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Lord Tharkon said:
Anyone know when the extraordinary version of Lucky Dip will be and what is extraordinary about it?

Should we save up tickets to use for it, or will it use a different mechanic?


I believe the Lucky Dip currently running is extraordinary because it is the first "Raffle" in 3 years and it is very different from the previous Raffles where we get fixed odds and are able to earn extra tickets from playing RS3.

You just gather tickets and spend or save them at your own choices. You can enter from 0 to 15 tickets everyday at your own choice. Because of the fixed odds, it should be no difference if you spend all your tickets today or save them for tomorrow or later.

20-Sep-2021 20:36:54

Abby Taylor
Nov Member 2019

Abby Taylor

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Leonards unlucky rip.

I've been putting all my tickets in every single day since release, that's 2x from my daily tickets + any tickets that I've been earning along the way. (Which I barely get any tickets from skilling, maybe 1 every 5 hours)

I'm comped so I don't need worthless exp lamps.

I haven't won a single non-lamp item yet, and there's only like 9 days left.

This is just another bull crap update to get people to log in every single day so player count numbers will look better than they actually are.

21-Sep-2021 17:07:31

Trancers
Oct Member 2015

Trancers

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So far this year I have won Golden Bandos equipment & Golden warpriest of Bandos armour, All I know to do is skill as much as you can to get as many tickets as you can and enter them try to spread them out to so you're not trying to just get one thing, somethings better than nothing right? ;) Goodluck to all

21-Sep-2021 20:50:29

Jeremy Cheng
Aug Member 2013

Jeremy Cheng

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True or false: the more out of a golden prize you almost completed, the chance of winning the final one to complete your collection goes down a hidden number that isn't on your dip interface?

22-Sep-2021 07:00:33

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