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Trip180
Mar Member 2020

Trip180

Posts: 16,650Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
People do sell phats, even long time holders, if they're stable or slowly declining. The expectation is the person will be able to rebuy for a similar amount. This stability/decline continues until... supply runs dry. Then, prices rocket up, and theories of a buy out are declared.

But rares do not only go up due to hoarding. They also rise due to little people taking little actions, cumulatively. Pursuing a phat is a common goal, and a stable price results in new buyers obtaining one or two.

When I returned to rs a few months ago, I had a few rares, and almost no cash, no way to make money. I couldn't even afford membership. By selling one rare, however, I could suddenly afford everything.
I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

03-Jul-2020 02:16:33 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 02:17:42 by Trip180

RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

Posts: 171Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I think pursuing a phat is more of an old idea. For too many new players, the goal is completely out of reach, so they're more likely to set their sights on something attainable for them, like a santa hat, for example.

I hate to say it, but the truth of the phats market is that it is just the same few of us, maybe 20 players total, and their alts, trading phats back and fourth.

Often phats are traded for other phats - swapped - for other phats with bit of gp added or other phats; not often, does someone just come in with a mass shards stack to buy a phat, meaning that their prices are pretty fictive in a lot of ways.

You're very lucky if you get a shards stack for a phat.

I say this as someone who also owns phats. :P

If blue was priced at 500b, ex, you wouldn't ever get someone with 500b to throw at you. It would just be white, valued also at some ridiculous amount, and a green and a bit of cash. Things like this.

The future of the phats market in my view is stable prices, if not less. And if they ever do go up, in the style of growth like they had pre-2017, it's going to be more of a symbolic value than anything.

IMO, they're not a great long term investment anymore, as they seem to have reached their market cap.
I'm known as Rich King Midas, and when you look at me, you'll see a king who knows a thing about his treasury. I never cared for women. I've never cared for wine. But when I count a large amount of money - ha ha - it's divine!

03-Jul-2020 04:35:10 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 04:47:40 by RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

Posts: 171Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Trip180 said:
If we see a DXP event soon, then rare prices ???

Regarding phats, one question is:

Which item will rise more quickly: Santa, Scythe, Phat, CTH, Pumpkin, Wine, H'ween, some random token, etc. (Fish?)


What relation is there to DXP and rares rises? Why do you think they will rise?

Sorry, I'm an older player and DXP was only ever like a once a year event. Seems they do them all the time now.

It appears to me that if there was a DXP, wouldn't people liquidate their rares for skilling materials? Wouldn't that produce a crash, if anything? Why would people suddenly invest in rares?
I'm known as Rich King Midas, and when you look at me, you'll see a king who knows a thing about his treasury. I never cared for women. I've never cared for wine. But when I count a large amount of money - ha ha - it's divine!

03-Jul-2020 04:50:39 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 04:52:44 by RichKngMidas

Lavender0726

Lavender0726

Posts: 19Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
nyxiah said:
Richkngmidas, I must admit, you're signature is a funny way of saying that you're homosexual xD, kudos for the creativity!


Well that seems inappropriate. I don't think his sexual preferences are really anyone's business, and even if he was "homosexual" as you rudely put it, why does that matter to you?
Lavender Mermaid

03-Jul-2020 05:18:47

RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

Posts: 171Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Let's stay on topic, please.

Does anyone have any predictions as to how an upcoming DXP will impact the rares market? How about GWD3?
I'm known as Rich King Midas, and when you look at me, you'll see a king who knows a thing about his treasury. I never cared for women. I've never cared for wine. But when I count a large amount of money - ha ha - it's divine!

03-Jul-2020 05:33:57 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 05:34:48 by RichKngMidas

HáRassy
Aug Member 2019

HáRassy

Posts: 17,445Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I dont see much potential for santas from here,at least not till hats have caught up which will take a while.
For hats i see much more potential as they still have some catching up to do. Tokens,edibles,th rares and the like i dont know about. Its a special market that completely depends on merchants hoarding and buying them out,they are an atractive market from a certain point of vieuw so anything could happen there i guess.
Hats i think are the only more or less normal market,their price is not so much based on hoarding (like santa,scythe etc) but more of a real price based on true rarity,at least it feels like that to me.
Hat holdings are more spread out amongst the population i think and people are less likely to sell them in general.
A player holding 1 hat is not all that likely to sell it,unless its someone who is in w2 all day trading them. They are also difficult to buy and difficult to sell,you could spend a whole day trying to buy or sell a single hat unless you way overpay or sell way below.
A player holding 10 santas is very likely to sell at least 9 of them when he has a decent profit. Easy to sell and easy to buy.

Maybe i am wrong and many players are not as much attached to their hats like i am. Merchants definitly seem to not be attached to their hats,they are always willing to sell them for a profit but owning a partyhat is still a sort of end goal for many players and once they obtain one they wont sell anymore. There is no need for a normal player to ever sell a hat,everyone gets richer all the time.

Dxpw i think it doesnt have an effect on hats. There seems to be dxpw every month these days. Hats are entering the realm of beeing untouchable,they had their drop and formed their bottom and now they are on their way up,a slow but steady rise for a long time to come. The amount in circulation keeps slowly declining.
Blue 500b is a bit excessive but i can see it hit 50b or max shards within 1-2 years.

03-Jul-2020 08:44:03

Mehu

Mehu

Posts: 54Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
^ Yes, the main thing making easier to catch hypetrain or rise is GE. If you can buy item in ge it is a lot easier to jump in. Even if you could afford a phat, let's say you have 20-40b, it is more convenient to hold 10 ge rares and multiply your profits by 10 than just pick one hat and hope it to rise.

First you need to buy it and as a pleb you probably get already merchant commission and same thing with selling.

When it goes out of ge like assassins walk token, disk of returning, tavias rod for example the interest to item declines a lot.

03-Jul-2020 08:59:37

Trip180
Mar Member 2020

Trip180

Posts: 16,650Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
RichKngMidas said:
Let's stay on topic, please.

Does anyone have any predictions as to how an upcoming DXP will impact the rares market? How about GWD3?
Without question, DXP + GWD3 are negative for the rare market.

This doesn't mean rares will fall. It means these forces will be negative. They could always be countered by positive forces, such as renewed interest/faith in rares or inflation.

H Rassy,

I just bought a phat with shards. I nearly always buy/sell in shards. You're getting carried away.

Until blue/cracker reach max shards, this won't change. It is very common to see a max shard stack. I've actually had over max shards. I still have a giant stack of them in my bank.

Rich people, people with more money than I have, seem to store shard boxes when believing rares overpriced.
I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

03-Jul-2020 09:01:08

Mehu

Mehu

Posts: 54Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
HáRassy said:

Maybe i am wrong and many players are not as much attached to their hats like i am. [...]owning a partyhat is still a sort of end goal for many players and once they obtain one they wont sell anymore. There is no need for a normal player to ever sell a hat,everyone gets richer all the time.

Yes. If you buy a partyhat for a goal or keepsake people usually stop staring at the prices. You might check how it is going for every 6months or so but it requires a huge change in %wise if anyone bothers.

When it is time to get the next one or upgrade you'll usually just pay the extra 100-200m to a mercher and continue farming gp for the next one.

03-Jul-2020 09:04:47

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